15 Apr 97		General update -- more to follow!

Table of Contents:

Introduction
The wood
On the rebound
Under lights
Hoodoo grounds
Bye bye
Fast starters
The winning/losing streak
My uncle played for Geelong

Introduction

This guide is based on an article written by Richard Hinds in the
Age in '94.

	You've emptied the wallet and paid the guy who runs the local
footy tipping competition. The footy fixture for this year is up there
on the wall, ready for you to graffiti all over it during the season.
You've had a quick study of who your team plays this year and you wonder
how Hawthorn will kick a winning score without Jason Dunstall.

	Like the Melbourne Cup sweep, the football tipping competition
has no official history. Except perhaps at the TAB.

	The first tipping chart might have been back in the early days
when University had a VFL team. Or it might have been in some outback
pub with a bottle of scotch to the winner.

	However it started, football tipping has become the source of
as much Friday afternoon speculation and Monday morning recriminations
as the game itself. Endless arguments about otherwise meaningless
late-season battles between Port Adelaide and Sydney, the usual "Tipping-gate"
scandal involving a missing set of tips and the inevitable conclusion -
a non-English speaking cleaner just off the plane from Sarajevo takes
the jackpot.

	Football tipping is popular because most competitions carry
prizemoney, but it is really popular because of the prestige.
The winner has the right to claim mystical powers of foresight.

	To get that power takes subtlety. The player drafts and the
salary cap not only evened the competition, it added a good 10 minutes
to the average tipping time.

	Still there remain enough gimmes (Carlton wins at home, 
loses elsewhere) to keep most tipsters in the race. The secret is
the one or two tips a month that become a winning margin by September.
The following may help:

The wood

Some teams have the wood on others: Geelong nearly always beats
Richmond, Fremantle has never lost to Sydney etc. Sometimes it is just because
they are clearly better teams. Past records are still worth thinking about in
line-ball games.

Here is a partial list of past records in the '90s:

	Geelong		12	vs	Western Bulldogs	2
	Richmond	6	vs	St Kilda		5
	Hawthorn	6	vs	Adelaide		4
	North Melbourne	9	vs	Sydney			2
	Brisbane	2	vs	Carlton			10
	West Coast	8	vs	Collingwood		4


Other interesting facts:

	Carlton have won their last 4 against Collingwood
	Essendon have never lost to Fremantle (3 out of 3)
	Footscray have won 5 of their last 6 against Melbourne
	Geelong have won their last 4 matches against West Coast
	North have won their last 5 against St Kilda
	St Kilda have won their last 3 against Collingwood
	Sydney have won 3 of their last 4 against Carlton
	West Coast have never lost to Fremantle (5 out of 5)

	More details to follow...

On the rebound

The top teams hit back hard after a loss, and don't often lose 2 in a row.
This is just a good rule of thumb. North Melbourne did not lose two in a
row in 1996.

Under lights

North Melbourne is generally regarded as a Friday night specialist, right ?
Adelaide also play well under lights. Tipsters should relate night wins to
where the team was playing -- mostly at home. Also, some teams have more night
matches than others (North Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide).

Hoodoo grounds

Some clubs don't play well at particular grounds. Probably because they don't
play there very often, or it's not suited to their style of play. The results
are reflected in the head-to-heads, but remember to:

	Put a line through Western Bulldogs & Richmond at Kardinia Park and St
	Kilda and Richmond at Princes Park (Optus Oval). Adelaide and Brisbane
	are hopeless when they visit Victoria. West Coast and Sydney (recently)
	have travelled to Victoria with a lot of success.
	
	Western Bulldogs has lost 16 out of the last 17 matches at the MCG
	(they won against Richmond on 12/4/97).

	Adelaide has never won at Kardinia Park.
	Essendon has never won at the Gabba.
	Geelong has never won at Football Park (except for an Ansett Cup match).
	Brisbane has a dismal record at Waverley. Collingwood is having a
	tough time there as well.


Conversely, some clubs have a fantastic home record:

	Carlton has won 28 out of their last 30 at Optus Oval (their last loss
	there was to Sydney!).

Bye bye

The bye hasn't influenced the draw in the last 2 years, because of the even
number of teams in the competition. Traditionally, Hawthorn, Carlton and
North Melbourne have done well after the bye. 

Fast starters

It's very hard to play catch-up tipster, so you need a fast start (damn!).
Look for the teams that improved late in the previous year to start off well.

The winning/losing streak

The top teams will get on a winning streak and stay on it (especially in the
second half of the season). Conversely for the bottom teams.

In 1996, West Coast had won 11 straight. Sydney had won 6 in a row.
In 1995, Carlton won 16 in a victory march that included the premiership!
In 1996, Collingwood had lost 8 games straight. Fremantle had lost 7 in a row,
	 and the Western Bulldogs had dropped 6 on the trot.

My uncle played for Geelong

For some misguided reason, some people always tip their own team. Eddie
McGuire always tips Collingwood on the Footy Show. Obviously he has some
paid capacity at the club, or an as yet undiagnosed syndrome! But you
don't. There is no "must tip the Roos every week" clause in your
membership. So tip with your head, and lie to your friends ;-)

Good luck!

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© William Yuan 1997